Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along. My last update was only five days ago so yep the candidate declarations are pouring out.
Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***
Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:
FL-18 – R+4,
IN-05 – R+20,
MT-AL – R+11,
PA-19 – R+12,
VA-04 – R+5,
So 386 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.
But we also have 153 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.
So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 153
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0
Districts with rumoured candidates – 18
Districts without any candidates – 24
Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 7
The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-49 – R+10,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CO-06 – R+10,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-24 – R+3,
FL-25 – R+4,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-15 – R+6,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-05 – R+20,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-01 – R+20,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
LA-06 – R+7,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-09 – R+7,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MT-AL – R+11,
NE-02 – R+9,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-07 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,
The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
None at this stage.
The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
LA-04 – R+7,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-04 – R+15,
TN-07 – R+12,
UT-03 – R+22,
The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
ID-02 – R+19,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-01 – R+9,
WA-05 – R+7.1,
WI-05 – R+12,
And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.
The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:
KY-05 – R+8
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-21 – R+13,
Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.
It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 26 states with a full slate, and 13 states with one race to fill! That is more than 3/4 of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 8 1/2 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!
Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.
It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 2 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst AL-06 does not currently have a Democratic candidate.
We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas debacle it now seems unlikely.
*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***
Keen to confirm Bruderly – FL-06, Crawley – AL-02, Lotz SC-02, Cox – SC-04, Spake – OK-03, Barton – OK-04 and Crowley or Hightower – LA-04.
Do you know anything about these races?
John Milkovich looks like he’s in. See the newspaper article dated January 30 in the Shreveport Times and his web site, http://www.johnmilkovichforcongress.com.
Meanwhile, Bobby Bright seems to creep closer to entering AL-2, probably as a Democrat (a 2/16 newspaper article adds to the noise). Rumors surround Jill Derby in NV-2 for a re-match vs. Dean Heller. Colleen Callahan is acting like she’s running in IL-18 but nothing is formal.
Tennessee may have two vacancies but it is one of the easiest states to qualify for. Michigan remains hard to figure although I guess the problem is money. Candice Miller has a million in the bank and the other two Republicans each have at least $500,000.
To lay off the Texas Dems, especially since (as you note) all of the districts without Dem candidates are extremely red. I believe in the 50-state strategy, but I’m not going to fault the state party in a huge state for not searching under every rock for fourth-tier candidates who are guaranteed to lose.
Max Yashirin, a 25 year-old Marine vet is challenging Jeff Fortenberry.
Two days early and we have at least one candidate filed in all 9 congressional districts in Indiana. Even further ahead of the game, it is 12 of 13 for North Carolina with Heath Shuler having 9 days left to file in NC-11.
When the California seats get filed the numbers will really jump upwards. It is always more reassuring to have them formally filed rather than merely having an active candidate.
Entry confirmed by a story in the Beaufort Gazette (www.beaufortgazette.com) dated February 15. That story said he “planned” to run against Joe Wilson in SC-2.
Trinity County Supervisor Jeff Morris has stepped to the plate in CA-2 (www.jeffmorrisforcongress.com). With Bobby Bright officially announced in AL-2 (www.wsfa.com, a local TV station) and WA-5 addresses elsewhere in this thread, we keep creeping towards 400.